Prediction: In 2010, Computers Will...

In 2005, inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil ’70 gave a talk at a TED conference in California, in which he argued that evolutionary processes, specifically biological and technological processes, tend to accelerate over time because they are fueled by interaction--the processes create capabilities and then use those capabilities to generate subsequent evolutionary stages. Extrapolating from that theory (and drawing on quantitative analyses he and his team had undertaken) Kurzweil made some bold predictions about the future. He said that in 2010...

...Computers will disappear. They'll be so small, they'll be embedded in our clothing, in our environment. Images will be written directly to our retina, providing full-immersion virtual reality, augmented real reality. We'll be interacting with virtual personalities.

He went on to say that most of the trends above wouldn't come to full maturity until 2029, but he still anticipated exponentially greater price performance, capacity, and bandwidth across a variety of technologies.

It'll be millions of times more powerful than it is today. We'll have completed the reverse-engineering of the human brain, compute -- 1,000 dollars of computing will be far more powerful than the human brain in terms of basic raw capacity. Computers will combine the subtle pan-recognition powers of human intelligence with ways in which machines are already superior, in terms of doing analytic thinking, remembering billions of facts accurately. Machines can share their knowledge very quickly. But it's not just a alien invasion of intelligent machines. We are going to merge with our technology.

So here we are! It's 2010 and computers are still ubiquitous and the retinas of this Slice writer aren't being written on. Was Kurzweil way off? Was he missing a larger point? It depends who you ask.

On the TED forum, commenter Chris Grayson pointed out, "Readers should keep in mind that, at the time he made these statements (four-and-a-half years ago), the iPhone, nor any of the true smartphones on the market yet existed. There were no multi-touch products available on the market. Augmented reality was speculative, now it is used all over in ads as well as several newly released smartphone applications. Earlier this year The University of Washington Sate announced they have developed a contact lens that has an LED video display built into it. DARPA has a similar product in development for fighter-pilots. If Ray is six months to even a year or two off on when these products make it into the consumer market, I'm willing to cut him that slack."

Others weren't as forgiving. "The problem with all these futurists is that they completely underestimate a factor which is energy demand," wrote commenter Fred Feuerstein. "WIth increased technology energy demand increases. Since we are currently stuck in the fossil fuel age and it does not seem that any replacement with a higher energy density will be achieved by 2020 and by that time fossil fuels are on the brink of being used up. The world will run into a global energy crisis before any of Ray's dreams come even close to reality"

And some are more skeptical about the basic implication that technology will help us (although nowhere does Kurzweil say it will save us): "Technology will not be the savior of humanity," wrote commenter Timothy Egan. "Rather, in my opinion it will be man's ability to finally evolve to a state of overall rationality that will advance the species further than any technology will ever take it. As an advanced species we presently have the mindset of an adolescence. Technology will not advance this state of being nor will it ever keep pace, something Kurzweil fails to mention as he proselytizes to us about the upcoming advancements of technology."

Alumni, what do you think about Kurzweil's ideas? And what do you think about the future of technological innovation and evolution in general? We at Slice would love to hear your thoughts.

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Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us