Through Math, Alum Helps Determine College Football Championship

For most college football fans, the announcement of a four-team playoff to decide the NCAA Division I national champion was historic.

The playoff would replace the current controversial system that determines the champion, known as the Bowl Championship Series (BCS). The BCS relies on a combination of six computer ranking systems, two human polls, and a strength-of-schedule formula to determine the first- and second-ranked teams.

The two human polls are determined by select college football coaches and sports journalists. As for the computer ranking systems, it comes as no surprise that the mind behind one of the longest-used computer rankings is an MIT graduate. The alum: Jeff Sagarin '70, who some have labeled "the most powerful man in sports."

Since the BCS’ inception in 1998, Sagarin's rankings have helped decide the championship game’s two teams. He was recently featured in USA Today, where he was called "a tackling dummy for math-phobic journalists uncomfortable with his complex and secretive system."

From USA Today:

"From square one, the press has hated the presence of the computers," said Sagarin, who has done college computer ratings for USA TODAY since 1985. "It's always the computers that are in the wrong. If the human polls and computers have the same top five teams, people say, 'The computers are superfluous. Why do we need them?' But if we disagree, it's 'Well, the computers screwed it up again.'"

Sagarin, who was previously profiled in Technology Review, began his career as a sports prognosticator shortly after graduation and conducted his rankings on an MIT mainframe until 1977. His rankings also help determine the participants in theNCAA Division I Basketball Championship tournament and his statistics on professional baseball, basketball, football, hockey, auto racing, and soccer are updated daily at USA Today.

Sagarin, who does not disclose his exact methodology, bases his system on factors including win-loss record, victory margin, and difficulty of schedule. He is unsure if his computer rankings will help determine the playoff-bound teams in the new system.

So, college football fans, are you excited about the planned four-team playoff, or is the nerd inside you a little disappointed that the complicated algorithms that help determine the championship will soon be a thing of the past? Let us know in the comments below or on Facebook.